A model Republican
Ron DeSantis has shown that being a principled advocate for common sense in the face of woke culture is a recipe for electoral success rather than political suicide. By Amanda Stoker.
The failure of the Republicans to deliver the gains that were expected in the midterm elections might disappoint some. But it presents three huge opportunities for future Republican success.
The first is that it has been interpreted by Democrats as an endorsement of their policy path and performance to date. Yet, some 85 per cent of Americans say their country is headed in the wrong direction and most economic indicators show that concern is well-founded.
While the “red wave” did not materialise, it was hardly a thumping victory for the Democrats. They are still likely to narrowly lose control of the House, but maintain control of the Senate.
President Joe Biden’s language suggests he considers the result both a victory and a mandate for the course on which he is steering the nation. When asked about the issues determinative for the result, he emphasised the decision of the Supreme Court in Dobbs, which held that abortion is properly understood as an issue for state legislatures rather than a constitutional matter.
He has not – in words or in policy action to date – acknowledged the harm that rampant inflation is causing for middle and working class Americans, nor the frustration those same people have with political indulgence of woke culture and its impact on work, education and health. Indeed, when asked whether he would shift course on these matters, he expressly said he would not.
The fact is, the places where Republicans underperformed correlate substantially with those places in which the Republicans ran Trump-aligned candidates of poor quality, with local campaigns that were poorly funded and run. It is no surprise that in these local contests, voters decided to go for the more mainstream of the candidates on offer.
The misdiagnosis of the result as an endorsement of the Democrats’ performance, rather than a rejection of some of the kookier populist characters that Donald Trump’s influence has fostered within the Republicans is likely to mean that Democrats fail to correct course.
This makes it likely that, by the time of the next presidential election, Americans will have had more than enough of economic hardship and cultural extremism. The environment will be ripe for a sensible Republican to succeed.
The second opportunity the result presents is connected to the first: the threat of a Trump candidacy for president is now diminished, and the path is open for a return to more traditional Republican candidates. Those Republicans will have built bonds with those Americans the Democrats have, in their pursuit of urban elites, left behind.
This means that the division of the Republicans between Trump fans and “Never-Trumpers” can heal, and that a star performer like Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has a clearer path to nomination as the Republican presidential candidate.
DeSantis has, with great effectiveness, turned a classic “purple state” – that is, a state known for regularly swinging between the Democrats and Republicans, with notoriously tight contests – into a state that last week delivered a thumping Republican victory.
What is particularly interesting about the result is that he did so not by gently aping and appeasing the woke activists that had risen to power in schools, corporate leadership and in the bureaucracy, but by boldly standing against them, and fearlessly delivering policy reflective of Republicans’ philosophical roots.
It was DeSantis’ Florida that rejected lockdowns and mandates during the COVID-19 era, arguing from first principles for individual rights to freedom of movement and choice.
He has pledged to never increase taxes.
DeSantis’ Florida enacted the parental-rights law to prevent public schools teaching adult concepts of sexuality and gender to small children, and which removed corporate welfare arrangements historically provided in the state in “special districts”, which meant some big businesses operated in a more favourable regulatory climate than other, particularly smaller, businesses.
It has been DeSantis’ Florida that has been prepared to confront those corporations, such as Disney, which insist on political activism that subverts democratic processes – and electors have richly rewarded it.
DeSantis has shown conservatives that activism should be met by more than mere hand-wringing and shaking of heads. He has shown that being a principled advocate for common sense in the face of woke culture is a recipe for electoral success rather than political suicide, even in marginal territory.
In doing so, he will lead a new cohort of traditional Republican candidates prepared to show much more spine on these issues than has been seen to date – a leadership that could take him all the way to the presidency.
The third – and largely unnoticed – opportunity arising from the midterms is the strong pipeline of common sense, traditional Republicans elected in downstream ballots. These elections, for state-based and less prominent elected roles that feed into future House, Senate and gubernatorial races, were overwhelmingly won by Republicans.
Contests for positions like sheriff and school boards are too small to capture the interest of the national press, but when done well they make a huge difference to local culture and living standards, and they are the training ground for future talent. Based on last week’s election, it is the Republicans who appear to have much of that development opportunity for the next few years.
At face value, the midterms look to have been a defeat for the Republicans. But the results may prove to be a blessing in the longer term.
Amanda Stoker is a Distinguished Fellow of the Menzies Research Centre and a former senator for Queensland. This article first appeared in The Australian Financial Review.