A New Dawn

Israel’s normalisation agreements with the UAE and Bahrain is a game changer for the region. By Dave Sharma.

There have been many false dawns in the Middle East, a region characterised by conflict and tension.

Shimon Peres spoke hopefully of a 'New Middle East' following the Oslo Accords in the mid-1990s. He hoped that peace between Israel and the Palestinians would unlock a broader peace throughout the Arab world. Instead, Oslo collapsed at Camp David and a second Palestinian intifada was launched.

A decade later, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice forecast the birth of a 'New Middle East'. Saddam Hussein's removal from Iraq held out the potential of a broader re-alignment in the Middle East. But Iraq descended into civil war, sectarianism and chaos.

And in 2011 the outpouring of public protests and the toppling of autocratic regimes across the Arab world gave hope of yet another new dawn, this time the 'Arab Spring'. But the Arab Spring was soon followed by an Arab winter of crackdowns, conflict and repression. Libya, Syria and Yemen are still in states of civil war.

Do Israel's normalisation agreements with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain presage a broader realignment in the Middle East, or will it be another false dawn?

When it comes to the Middle East, some pessimism is always warranted. But this time promises to be different, for three reasons.

Firstly, the announcements are hugely significant in their own right.

The UAE and Bahrain become the third and fourth Arab states to recognise Israel, following Jordan in 1994 and Egypt in 1979.

Though it has taken decades longer than it should have, Israel is finally becoming accepted as a legitimate stakeholder in the Middle East and part of the regional furniture.

The fact that it has been the UAE — the most moderate and progressive of the Gulf states — to take this first step forward should come as no surprise.

This move was coordinated closely with other Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, who saw this as a trial balloon. Given the muted public reaction in Arab capitals, we should expect Saudi Arabia to follow in due course.

Secondly, the opening between the UAE and Israel formalises a strategic realignment that has been underway in the Middle East for some time.

For a number of years now, the interests of Israel and much of the Arab world have been converging. Foremost amongst these interests is concern about Iran's nuclear ambitions, its ballistic missile program, and its regional destabilisation efforts and support to terrorist groups, from Yemen to Syria and Lebanon. Next come concerns about radical Islamist movements, and Turkey's support to such groups.

These shared concerns have lead to growing behind-the-scenes communication and coordination between Israel and the Gulf states.

Israel's agreements with the UAE and Bahrain bring this cooperation out into the open and begins to formalise this bloc.

Finally, the economic and strategic benefits of the deal have the potential to be significant.

Building ties between some of the most economically dynamic parts of the Middle East will provide big commercial and trade opportunities. Direct flights and access between Israel, the UAE and Bahrain will link Israel's technological prowess with the financial, logistics and investment hubs of the region, a win for both sides.

There will also be a strategic windfall for the region. Open diplomatic relations and exchanges between Israel and these two Gulf states, and onwards to the rest of the Gulf, will improve communication and allow increased coordination on security issues.

These new diplomatic channels will provide a vehicle to exchange assessments, coordinate positions, and if necessary address misunderstandings and de-escalate tensions. It is a vital piece of security infrastructure in a volatile region.

The White House and President Trump personally played an important role in helping broker this agreement, and deserve credit for this.

But the agreement itself speaks to a growing recognition amongst the Middle East’s major actors that they can no longer rely on Washington alone to keep the peace in the region.

Aware that the United States will no longer always be prepared to underwrite security in the Middle East, as the conflict in Syria has shown, the agreement demonstrates a greater degree of self reliance and strategic maturity.

Most significantly, these new agreements with Israel speak to a shift of mindset underway in the Middle East.

Rather than seeing Israel as a problem to be wished away, the UAE and Bahrain have recognised that Israel is here to stay, and have decided to make the most of this opportunity.

If the Palestinians could bring themselves to take a similarly enlightened and pragmatic approach, and drop the zero-sum attitudes, they might find that a similar peace with Israel is within their grasp.

Dave Sharma is the Federal Member for Wentworth and a former ambassador to Israel.

Watch Dave Sharma discuss the Abraham Accords - Donald Trump’s great peace initiative in the Middle East.