A Tale of Two Cities

In contrast to Victoria, the NSW story during the COVID-19 pandemic is one of greater competence and coordination, and more capable execution. By Tim James.

There’s a big difference in how our two most populous states have handled coronavirus and the outcomes are plain to see. It’s timely to call out some key differences. 

At the time of writing Victoria had 109 cases in hospital, NSW 2. Victoria had 29 cases in intensive care, NSW 1. On the day of writing (Thursday 16 July) Victoria announced 317 new cases, NSW 10.  The numbers speak for themselves.

As the recent Ergas Report published by the Menzies Research Centre confirms there is wide variation internationally in the health response and outcomes across nations. As the report notes, many factors can shape how a country’s population will be affected by coronavirus. They include demography, geography, economy, culture and the age profile. On these things, however, the differences between the states are too small to be of much significance.

Nor can it be said that the Victorian numbers are a result of bad luck, coincidence or sheer circumstance. While one or two community outbreaks might be blamed on misfortune, a dozen or more cannot.

So how is it that the state that locked down the hardest, and is now locked down again, is the state in which the virus has recently spread most readily? 

It is here that we must look to the differences in approaches by government, the structure of its agencies and the quality of service delivery. 

The work of government in tackling this pandemic is vitally important across a range of portfolios, foremost in health, but also community, policing, justice, education and roads & transport. Indeed, just about every area of state government administration has a role to play. The role of state government in general is one of service provision. So how well have these governments provided, adapted and resourced services to meet the challenges of COVID-19?

There’s no need to replay here the many failures of the Victorian government. In relation to quarantine, testing, tracking and tracing there are too many failures already widely reported. One crystal clear recent contrast to call out, as recently reported, is that 30% of Victorians in quarantine were not being tested. In NSW the same figure was 2%. 

The MRC’s Nick Cater has written about the role and power of the unions in the Victorian government’s response. There are many reports of the Victorian government being unclear, indecisive and ineffective in seeking support from the federal government. 

More broadly it’s illuminating to look at how the NSW and Victorian governments go about the essential task of service provision. Here’s one major example.

In 2013 the NSW government set up Service NSW to play a central coordinating role in service provision, to drive digital government and to lift service standards. It is a world-class agency with authority, resources and responsibilities which see it widely respected and appreciated. Service NSW has played a pivotal and real-time role in coordination, information and engagement of people and resources during COVID-19. It has in Minister Victor Dominello a champion for reform and results driven by service and technology. 

In stark contrast, the Victorian government commenced building Service Victoria in 2015 and in 2018 it became an administrative office within the Department of Premier & Cabinet. It is very much a poor cousin compared to its counterpart in NSW. 

As Henry Ergas outlined well on Watercooler LIVE this week there are limits to government capabilities to act and protect their states, and not even highly authoritarian states can ensure holistic and effective government responses. 

However there’s no doubting that the role and effectiveness of government can directly determine the success of a state’s response to a pandemic.

To be partisan doesn’t help in tackling a pandemic, but one inescapable conclusion here is that the Coalition Government in NSW led by Gladys Berejiklian has done a considerably better job than the Labor Government in Victoria led by Dan Andrews.

The contrast in relation to a second lockdown is clear too. Dan Andrews plunged Victoria into deep lockdown again while Gladys Berejiklian is doing everything she can to resist closing her state down again and rightly makes the point that we need to find a way in which we can coexist with the virus. 

There is also a distinct contrast in how Berejiklian and Andrews, and their governments respectively, are planning for recovery. Just this week the NSW Premier announced a comprehensive and impressive plan for COVID-19 recovery. Beyond a building construction blitz announced in late May there’s been no such comprehensive plan coming out of Victoria. 

Competence counts in government. Planning and preparing for challenges is vital. There’s no substitute for hard work and having a strategy. Sound, reliable systems and structures in support must be present. Good people, culture and leadership of those executing on behalf of government is essential.

All governments have made mistakes in handling COVID19. But while no government can claim to be perfect, some are less imperfect than others.