Critical Question for Queensland

It’s a critical contest for Queensland this weekend.  By Tim James.

Every election is important, but some are more important than others depending on the times, circumstances and challenges at hand. The Queensland election on 31 October is just that – incredibly important - as the state comes out of COVID and confronts the consequences of almost six years of Labor rule. 

Those six years have been characterised by big government, big spending, a much bigger public service and an enormous debt level. Centralisation, cronyism and corruption too.

The critical policy area of the contest? It’s the economy, stupid. So let’s look at some economic essentials.  

Queensland’s state government debt level is forecast by Queensland Treasury to blow out to more than $100 billion by mid next year – the highest of any state in the country by far.

This debt figure is $18 billion more than was predicted before COVID-19.

For context, the total forecast debt across all state and territory governments is $306 billion. So Queensland, with a population of about 5,160,000 among an Australian population of about 25,650,000, namely 20% by population, will be burdened with 33% of state debt across the country.

It’s a huge mountain to climb for the government being elected on Saturday. 

Likewise, on jobs Queensland is performing very poorly.  In fact the recent Commbank State of the States report states that Queensland has the worst jobless rate over time in the country at 26.3% above the decade average jobless rate. 138,000 Queenslanders have lost their jobs since COVID-19 came upon us. Unemployment is particularly acute in regional Queensland and among young Australians. 

Meanwhile, Queensland public service staff numbers have increased by 35,697 under this Labor Government and the public sector wage bill has increased by $500m during this year alone. The two-year average growth in public service expenditure exceeds population growth by a factor of almost two. 

It all adds up to a beyond Everest-like climb to return to economic sanity, stability and sustainability. 

What’s more, the economic crunch is coming in the months ahead with a zero growth forecast, growing debt and rising unemployment. 

Amidst all of this, the approach of Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk has been to keep Queensland’s borders closed for an unduly extended period.  And still to this day for millions of Australians. She should be judged harshly for adding to the state’s economic woes.  And there’s no plan for economic recovery from the current government.

With this rather bleak backdrop, consider these observations on the election itself, including insights from Queensland locals.

Queensland is a big state and there are big variations in issues, sentiment and voting patterns across the state. One party insider described the current campaign as being “like 93 by-elections” or an “election in many parts”. And there’s been much reporting on the significance of the regions to the LNP and the South-East corner for Labor and the Greens. 

Most importantly, feedback from Queensland late this week suggests there’s a path to victory. And, ironically, the introduction of compulsory preferential voting is likely to help the LNP, particularly in the regions. Similarly, Queensland moving to four-year fixed terms has also focused voters’ minds some more on the future of their state. 

Liberal leader Deb Frecklington can make history this weekend and become the first LNP female Queensland Premier. She’s run a positive campaign, showed courage in committing to big projects like the New Bradfield Scheme and worked incredibly hard in tough COVID-19 conditions that naturally tend to favour the incumbent. 

It’s a critical electoral contest this weekend. The decision voters make will have consequences beyond the next four years of government.