Election Analysis - Week Four

This week, Peter Dutton was able to recapture his simple economic message of the last two years. In contrast, Labor has ramped up a high-risk, high-cynicism strategy. by David Hughes.

First published in the AFR

While Peter Dutton edged out Albanese this week, it is fair to say that voters in our outer suburbs are paying little attention to any gradual shifts in momentum. You really can't blame them for being disengaged. Many who supported Labor at the last election feel let down. And instead of a concession from Anthony Albanese that he got it wrong—his message centres around the other side being worse. It really is a lazy defence from a tired government.

With a bit of clear air, Peter Dutton was able to tap into this sentiment, which is why he was declared the winner of the third leaders’ debate on Tuesday. Neither leader gave a perfect performance, but Peter Dutton edged out Anthony Albanese based on a calm rebuke of Labor attacks and scare campaigns, and his somewhat more positive message on cost of living. 

Insiders across both major parties measure issues driving the vote, and it’s cost of living and the economy that represent the greatest drivers in this campaign—fueled by a sharp decline in living standards over the last three years.

Daily stumbles and shifts in momentum capture the attention of the media, but they don’t override the views that voters have formed over the last three years based on their lived experience.

This election will come down to a bunch of individual contests in around 20 key electorates across the country. In the outer suburbs of Melbourne and Sydney, voters won't be obsessing over which leader won the day. Instead, they will be making an assessment on which party gives their family the best chance to get ahead. Unfortunately for Labor, cost of living concerns are more pronounced in the seats that matter.

On election night, we will struggle to find uniformity in the results. If you look deep inside Labor’s campaign you gain an insight into an undercurrent of discontent across our suburbs. This week, Labor have quietly shifted their digital advertising to sandbag a string of very safe Labor seats across their traditional heartland. Data on Labor’s Google advertising over the last seven days reveals Labor is spending the most money in the seat of Gorton, on the outskirts of Melbourne. It’s a seat Labor holds by 10% that has never been in play in previous elections. 

This week, Peter Dutton was able to recapture his simple economic message of the last two years. In contrast, Labor has ramped up a high-risk, high-cynicism strategy. A strategy focused on distracting from their cost-of-living failures with attempts to scare voters that the Coalition will slash essential services. It’s high risk because it assumes voters in our outer suburbs aren't smart enough or engaged enough to see through the spin. 

That assumption may prove to be Labor’s most costly misjudgment of all.