Election Analysis - Week One

Peter Dutton’s response to this week’s serious economic and security challenges were a stark contrast to that of the prime minister. by David Hughes.

First published in the AFR

If you lead a political party through an election campaign, the 5am starts are the least of your worries. An already stressful job is made harder by the 20 or so journalists in the “travelling press pack” who follow your every move. You can’t have democracy without scrutiny, and only the best leaders emerge unscathed.

The test this week centred around US tariffs and which leader has the capacity to get the best deal for Australia. Despite the benefit of incumbency and generous warning, the prime minister appeared on the back foot.

Australia has been subjected to the same tariff rate as Yemen, a nation effectively at war with the US. Our farmers will face the same “preferential” treatment on trade as the Houthi rebels.

The fact that the US also singled out one of Australia’s uninhabited external territories in the Antarctic with a separate new tariff demonstrates the consequence of not having a seat at the negotiating table. There was no in-person meeting between Donald Trump and Anthony Albanese, and Labor’s trade minister was a commentator rather than a participant in the process.

Australia isn’t powerless in the face of Trump’s America First strategy. We know Trump respects confidence and is receptive to pragmatic approaches from friendly nations. That’s an offering Peter Dutton is better able to provide, which was evident from his response.

Though a lack of confidence defined Albanese’s response on trade, a newfound enthusiasm defined his jam-packed announcement schedule on Medicare this week. Albanese’s passion for his “Mediscare” campaign is unmatched across any other policy area. Questions from The Australian Financial Review on issues such as productivity growth and GDP failed to elicit the same passion from Albanese, who appears to know more about Dutton’s record as health minister a decade ago than his own 2025 budget projections.

Campaigns always throw up surprises. This week, we learnt of a visit from a Chinese “research vessel” hugging Australia’s southern coast. It was the media that brought this to our attention because the government either didn’t know or didn’t want to talk about national security.

As most voters grapple with their personal challenges, they probably aren’t paying much attention to the election campaign yet. But when they see snippets of our leaders responding to these serious economic and security challenges, they are taking subconscious notes on character and competence.

Neither leader landed a knockout blow on his opponent this week, but it was an opportunity for Dutton to present a contrast. If the question in voters’ minds is which leader has the capacity to stand up for Australia’s national interests in the face of external threats, then Dutton comes out on top, this week and any week.