Facts Win Elections

How a series of incisive reports and a robust campaign to inform the electorate helped swing the result in the 2019 federal election. By Fred Pawle.

The 2019 election was supposed to be the first of the “post-truth” era, its outcome determined by shadowy campaign groups, blatant mistruths and deluded, even cowed voters.

Thanks to the good sense of the Australian people, this pessimistic outcome failed to eventuate, much to the chagrin of those on the left side of politics.

In a campaign that was indeed dominated by undemocratic forces and Labor repeatedly trying to hoodwink the electorate, the Menzies Research Centre, through a series of key reports and robust debates, proved that facts still matter to ordinary people, especially when they are exercising their most precious democratic right.

Labor leader Bill Shorten entered the campaign hoping his climate policy would not be heavily scrutinised. And it might not have, if not for independent Professor Brian Fisher’s BAEconomics report detailing the projected cost of that policy in terms of jobs, wages and GDP. Professor Fisher’s findings were alarming.

The MRC prosecuted Dr Fisher’s findings energetically and emphatically in the media and behind the scenes. As a result, journalists were encouraged to repeatedly ask Mr Shorten for his own costings. Labor leader Bill Shorten's response was to suggest the MRC had funded the report (watch from 1:00). We hadn't.

Under pressure, Mr Shorten eventually uttered what would eventually become the defining statement of the campaign, if not his career: “That’s a dumb question.” No politician can ever make such an evasive, condescending statement during an election campaign and not expect to pay for it dearly at the ballot box.

The idea that climate is a deciding factor in elections - widely held before May 18 - has proved to be inaccurate. Voters are concerned about the environment, but not at the expense of conventional issues. This has always been our belief at the MRC.

On two other topics, the MRC also led the debate against Labor’s ill-considered policies. Last year we published Unions Inc, a series of reports detailing how the new business model for unions increasingly benefitted union heavies at the expense of workers; belying the claim that non-union casual workers were disadvantaged; and calculating the frighteningly high cost of the industrial action proposed by the ACTU and endorsed by Labor under Mr Shorten. These reports effectively disabled Labor’s ability to campaign on industrial relations, traditionally one of its strongest policy areas.

And towards the end of the election campaign the MRC released Shattered Opportunity, a report by John Slater and Nick Cater that found Australia’s property investors were, contrary to Labor’s claims, overwhelmingly middle-class families. Indeed, negative gearing had helped create Australia’s middle class, proportionally the biggest in the world. Tampering with the rules would destroy the long-term aspirations of the nation’s biggest, most hard-working demographic.

A significant proportion of this demographic are Chinese Australians, and the MRC warned them of Labor’s destructive policy by translating the report into Mandarin and circulating it on WeChat, the group’s preferred platform.

The 2019 election featured some of the most disgraceful campaigning seen in Australia in decades, especially against former prime minister Tony Abbott in the seat of Warringah. The MRC was at the forefront of exposing the nefarious links between these anti-democratic activists and Mr Abbott’s main rival, Zali Steggall.

The MRC achieved all this with a full-time staff of just four people. We are dwarfed in numbers by GetUp and other political players, but our effectiveness is both greater and more successful. Our efforts provided a material boost to the Coalition’s prospects in key areas.

We at the MRC believe that truth and civility must always prevail in a sensible nation like Australia, and that elections must be fought on facts, not fuzzy feelings.

Our campaign to win the next election on good policies that benefit all Australians, and eradicate the forces that would repeat the dirty tactics that were employed this year, begins today.

Please help us keep this democratic dream alive. Despite this month’s wonderfully reassuring win, the price of our freedom and prosperity is, and always will be, eternal vigilance.