Hubris Pie
The confidence with which Labor entered the 2019 election was eventually its undoing. It is now clear just how indulgent the party had become. By Tim James.
Spectators at a game where one team is comfortably leading and running down the clock are inclined to head for the gates. Fans of the winning side might leave the ground elated but they share one frustration with their opposition counterparts: disappointment that the victors didn’t put on a better show and the vanquished threw in the towel.
But those fans who remain until the final siren are occasionally rewarded with an unforgettable spectacle: the hubris of the presumed winners providing an opportunity to the losers, leading to a dramatic come-from-behind win.
In politics, the equivalent happens when opinion polls and pundits all predict an easy win for one side, as they did for Labor in the 2019 federal election. In such circumstances, voters head for the gates by casting a pre-poll vote, which they did in record numbers this year, then ignore the rest of the contest, assuming Labor will cruise home.
Many Labor MPs did little to avoid this fatal error. Their leader, Bill Shorten, became increasingly complacent during the campaign, especially in the final two weeks. He responded to a legitimate policy question from a journalist by saying it was “dumb”, then promised millions of taxpayers’ dollars to the ABC, where “dumb” questions are less likely to be asked. A video emerged of him saying, “I'm going to be the next Prime Minister of Australia.”
Chris Bowen posted a photo, styled like a shoot for an HBO series, of the Labor leadership team with the caption, “We’re ready.” Bowen had previously told voters that if they didn’t like his policy on franking credits, “don’t vote for us”.
Then, with a few days left in the campaign, a story emerged that Shorten had already packed up his house, ready to move into the Lodge. This is like a sports team actually abandoning the game and forming a huddle in the middle of the field to sing their victory song while the ball is still in play.
Labor's hubris even came through its policies. The Medivac Bill, which effectively invited people smugglers to restart their heinous trade, three months out from the election was incredible given its prior political significance and polling around its impact in marginal seats. There’s no doubt that the Coalition showed more spring in their step after this policy fumble.
Now, after MPs have returned to Canberra for the first time since the election, stories are circulating of just how hubristic Labor had become before the campaign, such as:
A group of Labor MPs after the last sitting before the election, at the Qantas Lounge in Canberra, drinking champagne to celebrate the end of their time in Opposition.
At least one Labor shadow minister openly telling people what he/she planned to do in the portfolio after the inevitable victory.
Another Labor shadow minister threatening to tear up a key agreement made between an industry and the Coalition government.
Even now, many Labor MPs are still struggling to accept their loss.
Hubris is worse in politics because there is more time, in a five-week campaign, to keep the corrosion of over-confidence at bay. On the sporting field it can be a moment of madness. On the political battlefield it speaks to more fundamental and cultural flaws.
It has been a fatal flaw for too many people in public life. It’s as though hubris is an inevitable and unavoidable force. But those who ultimately succeed in politics tend not to succumb to it. John Howard, for instance, worked hard to remain grounded and humble, and even spoke openly of the need to avoid becoming smug or complacent in power.
Ironically, in 2018 at the time of the by-elections in Braddon and Longman, Bill Shorten warned against hubris in his ranks. As some of his colleagues predicted “big wins” he cautioned: “Anyone who says that an election is in the bag, I think we just need to remember that the voters still have to make their decision.”
Dennis Shanahan even wrote in The Australian late last year that Shorten’s strategy made “no hubristic claims”.
Well, it sure didn’t turn out that way. A full 24 hours before the election campaign finished, some staff at Labor's campaign headquarters in western Sydney celebrated prematurely at a fancy restaurant followed by drinks at a posh bar later into the night.
The live cross to Labor’s anticipated celebration, a lavishly catered party in the swanky Essendon Fields Hyatt near Melbourne, revealed a different mood. The luminaries and celebrities had all arrived early, eager to drink more of that champagne that had tasted so sweet after wrapping up in Opposition only a few weeks earlier. The voters, however, had not co-operated.
At the same time, Coalition MPs and candidates, led by the tireless Scott Morrison, were working the phones right up until polls closed. The rest is history.
In the 1999 Cricket World Cup, Australian batsman Steve Waugh, on 56 at the time, popped an easy catch to South African Herschelle Gibbs. Gibbs had the ball in his fingers and went to throw it up in celebration, at which moment the ball slipped from his grasp. Waugh went on to score 120 off 110 balls, and Australia won, eventually winning the World Cup.
Gibbs is now universally known as the man who “dropped the World Cup”. Bill Shorten will most likely be remembered for a similar reason.