Let's Get On With More Gas

The ‘get-rid-of-gas’ campaign by activists in Australia right now is not only reckless and dangerous, it flies in the face of developing our renewable energy sector and economy more broadly. By Tim James.

Those seeking to get rid of gas in Australia should be careful what they wish for.  Some basic facts and analysis are illuminating before they #TurnOffTheGas (yes they use this hashtag). 

Gas is used by about 70% of Australian homes, either connected to the network or bottled. Many millions of appliances across Australia use gas for cooking, hot water, heating and more. Gas is supplied to Australian homes at about half the cost of electricity. Gas has the qualities of being quick, flexible and reliable which makes it ideal for industrial use. Those same characteristics make it the ideal partner for renewable energy. 

Recent modelling by the CSIRO has Australia’s domestic gas growing by 20 per cent or more by 2060, while gas production is predicted to rise by at least 90 per cent. 

Around the world, demand for gas is well summed up in a late 2019 report by McKinsey:

“The past year saw the natural-gas market grow at its fastest rate in almost a decade, supported by booming domestic markets in China and the United States and an expanding global gas trade to serve Asian markets. While the pace of growth is set to slow, gas remains the fastest-growing fossil fuel and the only fossil fuel expected to grow beyond 2035.”

Watercooler has previously outlined the many organisations and authorities that, correctly, assert the growth and opportunity in growing gas supply in Australia.  Likewise Watercooler has reported on the activist assault upon gas and pointed to its hollow arguments. 

Yet every day currently there are calls from certain people to get out of gas projects and to cease our second largest global export. They make wild assertions like “gas is more polluting than coal”, “it is a dirty fossil fuel”, “it is unsustainable”, “we will not be able to keep our Paris commitments” and “it’s a stranded asset”. The facts on each suggest otherwise.

The old adage that if you throw enough mud then some of it will stick must spur on those adamant gas has got to go.  They don’t let up.

This week it was a new Australia Institute report commissioned by the Australian Conservation Foundation, cutely entitled ‘Weapons of gas destruction’, that delivered the latest salvo against gas in Australia. It makes the extraordinary claim that Australia’s gas resources, if fully unleashed, could be responsible for up to three times the annual carbon emissions of the entire world. Yes you read it right - triple the world’s annual emissions!  It further claims that Australia’s use of gas resources would use up 28% of the global carbon budget.

Extraordinary statistics. But alarmism and activism dressed up as analysis in so many ways.

Firstly, not every gas resource in Australia can be expected to be fully developed. It is a sweeping generalisation and assumption to expect that collectively all of the country’s gas resources would be commercial or feasible (or even at the same time).

Secondly, the analysis fails to reflect the reality that if Australia’s exported gas wasn’t to be used then almost certainly another less clean and efficient energy supply would be harnessed in other markets.

Thirdly, it proceeds on the basis that increased gas supply and consumption will increase emissions, not reduce them. Yet gas is the cleanest burning fossil fuel and would in many instances take the place of coal fired energy generation. 

Just a week earlier the Australia Institute’s economist Richard Dennis wrote an article for the Guardian entitled “Phasing out gas would benefit manufacturers and households”. Yet he cited no manufacturer who takes that view and good luck telling the 70% of Australian households who use gas to get rid of it. 

Meanwhile the “Smart” Energy Council says we “need to dump coal big time – and gas too”.

It’s clear there’s a relentless propaganda machine designed to destroy gas.  It won’t work either politically or practically.

Energy Minister Angus Taylor understands the essentials here with an eye to the future: “We know that gas is the perfect partner to intermittent renewables. Far from competing with renewables, it complements them by helping to stabilise the grid, reduce emissions and deliver lower power prices” he tweeted in late August. 

And so too does Australia’s Chief Scientist.

A group of scientists wrote an open letter to Chief Scientist Dr Alan Finkel recently asserting that gas must be phased out to “keep Australians safe and meet our Paris Agreements targets”.

Dr Finkel clarified that “the adoption of renewable energy will be faster, more economical and more reliable if natural gas fired electricity generation continues to be available in the near to medium term”.

Furthermore, Dr Finkel made clear that “emissions from using natural gas to generate electricity are significantly lower than when using coal to produce the same amount of electricity, even when upstream fugitive emissions of methane are included in the analysis”, countering concerns expressed by former NSW Premier Bob Carr and others.

Finally, he celebrated how “the rapid ramping rate of natural gas fired electricity – in its supply firming role – means that it does not need to operate for nearly as many hours per year as slow ramping coal fired electricity would need to operate to meet shortfalls in the combined solar and wind generation.”

So not only will the addition of more gas in Australia increase energy affordability and reliability, but it will assist in the smooth transition towards renewables whilst contributing to Australia’s commitment to the Paris Climate Accord – a win-win for all.

That’s why the Menzies Research Centre is continuing our long-standing research and policy work on gas – it’s good for all Australians.