Reading The Crowd

We are not using technology properly in this crisis. There are smarter ways to prevent the virus spreading. By Fred Pawle.

The solution to some of the most important questions regarding COVID-19 is in our pockets. Mobile phones are the key to gathering data about people’s behaviour and responding in a targeted way in real time.

Other countries are already using them. Singapore, for example, has developed an app that logs any other app users with whom you come into prolonged contact. If you are later diagnosed with the virus, those other users are immediately contacted and advised to self-isolate.

Australia’s official responses to the crisis have been more analog than digital, involving blanket restrictions and deployment of police and the military.

This is not surprising, given the level of technological sophistication of our leaders. The Australian reports today that some of the nation’s top decision makers are communicating on WhatsApp, and that “for some, it was their first time using the technology”.

But one Australian collaboration has shown the potential of technology to deal with the virus in a smarter way.

Polling company Roy Morgan and tech data company UberMedia have tracked the number of mobile phones entering the CBDs in Melbourne and Sydney since January 1. See the graphs here. Use the drop-down menu to select Melbourne or Sydney.

The data’s first revelation was that Australians were voluntarily staying away from the city before governments imposed restrictions on restrictions were imposed.

This is confirmed by separate phone polling conducted by Roy Morgan. “There is clear evidence that people were already tending to stay away from the city,” says Michele Levine, the CEO of Roy Morgan.

But it’s the data’s real-time usefulness that is the most signficant, says Michele Levine, the CEO of Roy Morgan.

The data is gathered by identifying phone devices entering the city. Data from other receivers around the city is then gathered to determine where that device spent the previous night, which was presumably at home. The home suburb thus places the device’s user roughly in a demographic. It’s tracking people without specifically identifying them or intruding on their privacy.

COVID-19: Read the MRC’s coverage of the debate in Australia and around the world

So not only can Roy Morgan and UberMedia be immediately informed when a crowd gathers – at a beach, park or shopping centre – they will also know which demographics those people fall within. This is crucial in being able to respond accordingly, Levine says.

“I quite like the idea of targeting SMS messages to people in a crowd, saying, ’Keep safe, go home. We can see you are in a crowd’.,” Levine says

“But if you are talking to young people, who are fearless, then there is a different message to one for older people. Sophisticated messaging is really what needs to be happening now.”

The same technology will become useful in another way in the coming weeks, as cabin fever kicks in.

“Who is going to break out and say, ‘I can’t stand this any more’?” Levine asks. “This kind of information, with nuances, will allow the government to understand what is happening, the motivations behind it and what they can do about it. It is understanding what help people need.”