Republican setback

 

Far from eroding support for the constitutional status quo, as republicans expected, the transition of the crown has demonstrably strengthened it. By Nick Cater.

Anthony Albanese’s eloquent tribute to our late Queen, “a rare and reassuring constant amidst rapid change”, voiced our common gratitude for the service of this exceptional woman.

Our monarch may reside on the other side of the world but, as the Prime Minister acknowledged, Queen Elizabeth II was anything but distant.

The extension of her personal kindness to Australians in times of tragedy and hardship was immediate and heartfelt.

The period of official mourning that ended on Monday with the state funeral in Westminster Abbey serves not just to mark the Queen’s passing but to establish her heir, Charles III, as King by popular consent.

The dispute about whether Charles, or his representative, the Governor-General, is technically the Australian head of state is irrelevant.

Authority flows not from the head, but the crown that sits above it, as our Constitution rightly expresses.

Far from eroding support for the status quo, as republicans expected, the transition has demonstrably strengthened it.

A survey by Compass Polling commissioned by the Menzies Research Centre last week shows support for retaining the monarch as head of state rose from 43 per cent in January to 57 per cent last week.

Source: Compass Polling

King Charles is far more popular than you might imagine from the tone of some of the conversations on the ABC or around lower north shore barbecues.

Seventy-five per cent of Australians agree that Charles will make a good king compared to 33 per cent who, in answer to a separate question, say he’s weak and out of touch.

It is a level of approval few political leaders could ever hope to achieve.

Source: Compass Polling

Source: Compass Polling

We are witnessing not just increased support for the monarchy but a hardening of that support, notably among younger Australians.

In January, young people cared far less either way than their older counterparts.

Fewer than 20 per cent of women and 34 per cent of men under 35 held strong opinions for or against a republic. The over-55s were considerably more passionate, with 46 per cent of women and 55 per cent expressing strong support for one or the other model.

Today, opinions in every age cohort and among supporters of every party have strengthened. In every case the tide has shifted towards the monarchy.

In last week’s poll, 29 per cent of women and 21 per cent of men under 35 strongly support a monarchy compared to 9 per cent of women and 18 per cent of men who strongly favour a republic.

Strong support for a republic among the over-55s has fallen by 10 per cent. Strong support for the King as head of state has risen by 15 per cent among women over 55 and 10 per cent for older men.

Support for a republic among Greens voters has fallen from 74 per cent to 60 per cent.

Source: Compass Polling

Source: Compass Polling

Labor voters were in favour of a republic by 63 per cent to 37 per cent in January. Now it’s 50-50.

Source: Compass Polling

Source: Compass Polling

Coalition voters were evenly split in January but today they favour retaining the King as head of state by 72 per cent to 28 per cent.

Source: Compass Polling

Source: Compass Polling

Monarchs don’t live or die by opinion polls, of course, which is part of the strength of the system. Yet on the evidence of the survey last week, there has clearly been a tectonic shift in attitudes towards the monarchy.

Those without the sensitivity and grace to recognise this moment have made themselves look foolish.

The Australian Republican Movement had graciously put its campaign on hold until after Thursday’s official day of mourning in Australia.

Yet as Greg Brown reported in The Australian last week, the republicans will be campaigning from Friday to stop the royal noggin being minted on our coins and to find a suitably diverse and inclusive figure to fill the supposed vacancy on the $5 note left by the death of the Queen.

Assistant Treasurer Andrew Leigh should have dismissed this daft idea out of hand last week. Instead he gave it dignity, promising “a sensible conversation” within government followed by “an appropriate announcement in due course”.

In that case let’s have a sensible conversation about Banjo Paterson (1864-1941), Dame Nellie Melba (1861-1931), Mary Reibey (1777-1855), Rev John Flynn (1880-1951) and six other Australians who are no longer qualified to grace our banknotes by virtue of being dead.

The Prime Minister’s flight back from London offered him a chance to reflect on this moment in history and put himself on the right side of it.

He should recognise that there is little enthusiasm for change outside of the radical green fringe.

The last referendum on a republic was conducted during an extraordinary period of stability that followed the end of the Cold War, yet still Australians voted overwhelmingly for the status quo.

Anyone who imagines the appetite for change is greater today than in 1999 clearly hasn’t been reading the foreign pages.

Albanese could begin with baby steps, like sketching out the appropriate announcement Leigh has promised.

It should include an unambiguous statement that the King’s head will grace our coins as quickly as they can be struck and that the $5 note will continue to honour the woman who helped guide Australia through 70 of its first 121 years of Federation.

He might consider the most minor of minor cabinet reshuffles by finding Assistant Minister for the Republic, Matt Thistlethwaite, something useful to do.

This unique moment in the life of the nation has given Labor the opportunity to shake itself free from the historical grievance it has nursed since the dismissal of Gough Whitlam 47 years ago this November.

With the death of the Queen, all the key players in that drama have now left the stage.

With the steady release of papers, it is now abundantly clear the Queen’s actions were exemplary.

Anthony Albanese has the political capital and authority to declare the matter closed.

He must put aside any thought of a second referendum and extinguish the embers of the fiery young radical he once was.

He should embrace the stability and enduring calm he recognised in the Queen and make his peace with the Crown.

 
 
Nick CaterNick CaterNick Cater