Road to nowhere

We need clarity on what exactly we are trying to achieve through the harshest public health measures the country has ever seen. By Nick Cater.

If we’re going to find a way out of this pandemic before we flatten our economy, we must first be clear about our destination.

At the start of the pandemic, the goal was to prevent our hospitals being overwhelmed by the sick and dying. Today it’s far from clear what precisely we are trying to achieve through the harshest public health measures we’ve ever seen in Australia.

The public is confused, judging by an opinion survey by Compass Polling asking the reason for the lockdown. Only 13 per cent said it was to stop a rush on hospital services, the same proportion of people who thought the aim was to eliminate the virus completely. Only 6 per cent said the aim was to prevent deaths.

The majority, 62 per cent, thought it was to reduce the spread of the virus, a destination so vague, that it’s worse than useless. What level of reduced risk will satisfy our lockdown-happy premiers that it's safe to put down the sledgehammer?

Here’s the good news, however. Those at most risk are considerably safer than they were this time last year. We have learnt how to isolate the elderly more effectively, particularly in nursing homes. And Greg Hunt’s smart decision to put them at the front of the queue for the jab means their risk of ending up in hospital, or worse, is a fraction of what it was.

Here are the facts you won’t hear from the lips of the scaremongers who seem to want lockdowns go on forever.

In the first 18 months of the pandemic, 12 per cent of Australians who tested positive were in the high risk 70-plus age bracket. Of the 923 Covid-19 deaths so far, 93.5 per cent were aged over 70.

In the latest outbreak, by contrast, fewer than 5 per cent of those who test positive were over 70, cutting the risk of hospital admissions by more than half.

Add to that the phenomenal success of the vaccines. Almost 8 out of ten over 70s have had one jab and 40 per cent have had two.

Data from Public Health UK estimates that the first jab alone reduces the chance of ending up in hospital by 75 per cent. Having a second jab reduces that risk to 94 per cent.

Based on those figures, it would be safe to estimate that the risk of a fully vaccinated person over 70 going to hospital is many times less than it was before we learned to protect the elderly with better protocols plus the vaccine.

The big question is what level of risk are our chief health officers prepared to live with before allowing us to get back to work? At the Menzies Research Centre, we strongly believe that threshold has long been passed.