The Lockdown Bites

An exclusive study of the US economy has found activity has decreased by an alarming 29 per cent, and foresees worse when the impact of lost income is felt.

At least one-quarter of the US economy has suddenly gone idle amid the coronavirus pandemic, an analysis conducted for The Wall Street Journal shows, an unprecedented shutdown of commerce that economists say has never occurred on such a wide scale.

The study, by the economic-analysis firm Moody’s Analytics, offers one of the most comprehensive looks yet at how much of the world’s largest economy has shut down in the past three weeks. It also analyses counties big and small — from Manhattan to a tiny county in Colorado — to estimate how a concentration of government shutdown orders in the counties that produce a disproportionate share of the nation’s goods and services has weighed on the national picture.

While 8 in 10 US counties are under lockdown orders, according to Moody’s, they represent nearly 96 per cent of national output.

Forty-one states have ordered at least some businesses to close to reduce the spread of the coronavirus, according to Moody’s. Restaurants, universities, gyms, movie theatres, public parks, boutiques and millions of other “nonessential” businesses have shut off the lights as a result. The upshot: U.S. daily output has fallen roughly 29 per cent, compared with the first week of March, just before the spate of closures, the analysis shows.

Read the full story on The Wall Street Journal here

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