Widening The Gap
Australia is more divided than ever, as a longitudinal study of this year’s federal election reveals. The implication for politics is alarming. By Nick Cater.
The lowering of politicians in our collective esteem was confirmed this week with the release of the 2019 Australian Electoral Study, one of the most reliable measures of long-term political trends that we have.
More voters approved of Scott Morrison than Bill Shorten as the result of the election would lead us to suspect.
But our trust and approval in both men fell a long way short of what a good leader might have expected at the start of the century in keeping with a trend in other Western democracies.
Shorten received the lowest approval rating of any opposition leader in the survey’s 32-year history.
The trite explanation for this global phenomena is that the quality of our politicians is getting worse. Those who respond to a once noble calling have become venal and incompetent, remote from the people they purport to represent and in it purely for themselves.
An alternative explanation, more credible in our view, is that it is us, not them, who have changed. Australians have become more polarised in their outlook and divided in their demands.
The national interest is being contested by tribes pulling hard in opposite directions. It has become harder, if not impossible, to satisfy all of the people even some of the time.
The study, conducted under the stable hand of Ian McAllister at the ANU, provides evidence aplenty of a divided Australia.
Australians are divided by age, state, gender and education, directing political allegiances in novel ways.
Gender differences are stark. The women’s primary vote for the Liberal Party was just 35 per cent compared to 45 per cent of men. For men the biggest issue was the management of the economy (32 per cent compared to 17 per cent of women). Women’s biggest issue was health (30 per cent compared to 14 per cent of men.)
More voters under 35 voted for the Greens (28 per cent) than the Liberal Party (23 per cent). Yet the Greens attracted just 3 per cent of the over 55 vote while the Coalition secured 50 per cent.
One factor that may be widening the age voting gap may be wealth. Today’s over 55s have more wealth than any previous generation thanks to the economic reforms of the 1980s and 90s and a record period of prosperity.
Half of all home owners (50 per cent) voted for the Coalition, while only a third (33 per cent) voted labor. Renters voted disproportionately for Labor (41 per cent) and the Greens (20 per cent).
Education was a significant vote predictor. Tradies favoured the Liberal Party, graduates Labor and the Greens. Only 32 per cent of voters with a non-tertiary qualification voted for Labor, once regarded as the party of the workers, while 46 per cent voted for the Coalition.
On the other hand, 38 per cent of university graduates voted for the Coalition compared to 53 per cent for Labor or the Greens.
The challenge for any leader desiring to appeal to these different groups is the widening gulf in their world views.
The Liberals may win the case on economic management convincingly, but there are others who care little for the economy and worry a lot about climate change.
Low popularity levels are clearly more than a temporary glitch. In an era when an agreement on the nation’s interests are so hard to define, for now unpopularity is the new norm.